Historical analogies for the AI era

Adam Tooze suggests that the rise of AI and the dominance of tech billionaires require looking beyond quaint 20th-century benchmarks like the Manhattan Project (George Webb 's Intelligence Network). He argues that the scale of resource mobilization and the transgressive nature of current corporate power align more closely with the history of empire and the Atlantic slave trade. This perspective emphasizes that modern technological booms, much like the colonial ventures of the Tudor and Stuart eras, involve financial innovation and media-driven national myths that prioritize profit over existing social guardrails.

Conversely, other analysts maintain that such dark historical comparisons are alarmist and lack moral equivalence, preferring to view current shifts through the lens of the Industrial Revolution or the dot-com bubble. Some observers argue that these private-sector-led transformations, while disruptive, operate within a supportive government framework rather than the state-led industrialization seen in 20th-century authoritarian regimes. This view suggests that current crises are better understood as a continuation of familiar capitalist cycles rather than a fundamental break from democratic norms.

These positions ultimately clash over whether AI represents a unique, world-threatening rupture or merely a high-speed iteration of past economic booms. While one side warns that complacency ignores the historical patterns of elite-driven exploitation, the other maintains that framing technological progress as a colonial project obscures the reality of contemporary market dynamics and institutional stability.