hebel. today · 3 November 202634 / 68
Sport · Sports Analytics
Evaluate decisions by process, not just outcomes
High-level metrics often obscure specific tactical deficiencies. For instance, the Dallas Stars maintain a top-10 statistical profile with a 55% shot share and a 56% expected goals rate. This aggregate success relies entirely on…
From 4 newsletters · 1 min read · one thing to try
High-level metrics often obscure specific tactical deficiencies. For instance, the Dallas Stars maintain a top-10 statistical profile with a 55% shot share and a 56% expected goals rate (Stars Stack). This aggregate success relies entirely on defensive shot suppression, as the team ranks first in the league for shots allowed at 5v5. Conversely, their offensive generation ranks 23rd, trailing teams like the Seattle Kraken. Relying on overall results to judge team health leads to flawed conclusions, as a sound process can produce a poor outcome while a lucky one hides systemic failures (Tiffani Bova).
Effective assessment requires separating the decision-making process from uncontrollable variables. Leaders often defer to internal experts, which discourages the challenge of underlying assumptions and limits access to contradictory information. To avoid this, focus on the context—such as opponent personnel, market conditions, or specific game states—rather than just the final score (GameDay Systems). When analyzing performance, track the causes of success or failure, such as zone entry consistency or shot quality, to understand if current results are sustainable or merely artifacts of small sample sizes [[170327],, [613440]].
Try today · 45 min
Conduct a 'process-first' review of your team's last three game outcomes.
Identify one decision that led to a positive result despite a flawed process, and one that failed despite a sound process.
You need
- Game film or play-by-play logs
- List of key tactical decisions made during those games
- Performance metrics for those specific game states
Steps
- Select three recent games to analyze.
- List the primary tactical decisions made by the team or coaches in each game.
- Categorize each decision as either 'sound process' or 'flawed process' based on the information available at the time.
- Compare these categories against the final outcomes.
- Document one instance where the outcome did not reflect the quality of the decision.
- Note what specific data point or observation was missing that could have improved the decision.