Aggressors in modern conflicts rarely achieve their objectives

Nations that initiate military conflict rarely achieve their intended strategic outcomes, a pattern consistent across the last century of warfare. The Confederacy lost the American Civil War after initiating hostilities at Fort Sumter, and Germany suffered defeat in both World Wars after launching initial attacks (William Robichaud from A Bird in the Driftless Bush). Similarly, the Soviet Union lost its decade-long war in Afghanistan, and Iraq failed to secure its objectives in the Iran-Iraq War and the 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Recent history confirms this trend, as the U.S. and Israel face negative consequences in their ongoing conflict with Iran, just as Russia struggles to gain ground in its invasion of Ukraine.

This record of failure suggests that the initial aggressor often triggers a backlash that undermines their own position. The 1979 Iran Hostage Crisis, which lasted 444 days and involved the seizure of 52 American hostages, serves as a case study in how such interventions create long-term enmity rather than resolution (Making History Come Alive). The U.S. response, including failed military rescue attempts and economic sanctions, failed to secure immediate stability and instead entrenched a multi-decade conflict (Making History Come Alive).

The 1095 Council of Clermont saw Pope Urban II attempt to redirect European aggression outward by framing the First Crusade as a religious necessity to aid the Byzantine Empire against Seljuk incursions (Making History Come Alive). While this effort unified fractured factions under a common goal, it initiated centuries of complex religious and political friction rather than a definitive settlement. As the author of A Bird in the Driftless Bush observes, "A stone thrown into our shared pool of existence will ripple back on the thrower".