hebel. today · 11 November 202657 / 73
World · Geopolitics
Global economic output shifts toward Asia by 2040
Economic power realignment. The United States, China, and India will account for 51% of the world’s $227 trillion in economic output by 2040. Global GDP will expand from $124 trillion to $227 trillion over…
From 3 newsletters · 1 min read · one thing to try
Economic power realignment. The United States, China, and India will account for 51% of the world’s $227 trillion in economic output by 2040 (William Edwards from Geowizard Global Business Update). Global GDP will expand from $124 trillion to $227 trillion over this period, with Asia capturing a larger share of the total as India climbs to the third position in global rankings.
Geopolitical supply shocks. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will fall 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2 billion tonnes, marking the first annual decline since 2020 (10 Things Global News). This reduction stems from higher energy prices following the US-Israeli war on Iran, which suppressed oil consumption, though researchers expect a rebound if oil markets stabilize.
Targeted infrastructure sabotage. French authorities are investigating unprecedented cyberattacks on nearly 700 food distribution sites that spoiled supermarket inventory and ignited at least 15 fires. Intelligence reports attribute the remote temperature manipulation to a unit called Shahid Kaveh, noting that the attackers exploited obsolete software in commercial refrigeration equipment.
- Social Security will provide a 3.6% cost of living adjustment for 2027, though Medicare Part B premiums will rise to $209.50 per month (St's Substack).
- Canada’s trade surplus with the United States widened to $12.3 billion in September, driven by increased shipments of crude oil and gold (William Edwards from Geowizard Global Business Update).
Try today · 30 min
Perform a stress test on your primary income or investment sources using the 'Strategic Futures Lab' method.
Identify the three main assumptions that keep your current financial plan viable.
You need
- A list of your current income sources or primary investments
- A notepad to record assumptions
Steps
- List your three most significant income sources or investment assets.
- Write down the single most critical condition that must remain true for each to continue performing.
- Imagine a plausible future where that specific condition fails due to geopolitical or trade volatility.
- Document one specific action you would take to adapt your financial position if that assumption were proven wrong.