Accidental Adversaries

The “Accidental Adversaries” archetype describes how two parties who would benefit from cooperation form an alliance — but then each take locally rational actions to solve their own problems that inadvertently harm the partner. A virtuous cycle of cooperation thus tips into a vicious one of distrust and retaliation, with no one ever intending it.

An outer reinforcing loop (R) binds the two parties: collaboration produces mutual success that feeds still more collaboration — a synergy. Nested inside, however, are two inner balancing loops (B): each party solves its own problems locally. The side effects of those fixes cross over and disrupt the partner. The partner’s success drops, it responds with its own local fixes — and the once-reinforcing collaboration loop runs in reverse, from synergy into sabotage.

Joint ventures, transboundary resource agreements, supply-chain partnerships. The classic case is the historic inventory friction between Walmart and P&G: each side optimised its own stock costs — and thereby destabilised the other’s planning.

Map the whole system together so the cross-impacts of local fixes become visible to both — neither party ever sees them from its own vantage point. Introduce cross-functional metrics that measure shared success, and vet every local fix in advance for its systemic effect on the partner before implementing it.

A manufacturer that raises minimum order quantities to cut costs and so forces the retailer into expensive overstock. Two departments each optimising their own targets while clogging each other’s handoffs.