Knowledge
Game Theory & Systems Thinking
A clear reference of game-theory models and systems archetypes — with structure, use cases and concrete leverage points.
Systems archetypes
- Limits to Growth Fast growth hits a limit and tips into stagnation or collapse — because a reinforcing engine runs into a balancing constraint.
- Shifting the Burden A quick symptomatic fix relieves the pressure — and in doing so starves the fundamental solution of the very attention and resources it needs.
- Fixes That Fail A quick fix relieves the symptom now — and with a delay triggers an unintended consequence that makes the original problem worse.
- Success to the Successful Whoever wins an early — often accidental — advantage is rewarded with a disproportionate share and entrenches their lead, regardless of intrinsic merit.
- Tragedy of the Commons Many independent actors overexploit a shared, finite resource — each locally rational, collectively ruinous.
- Escalation Two parties each counter the other’s perceived threat — driving one another into a spiral far beyond what either ever intended.
- Accidental Adversaries Two partners who would benefit from cooperation each solve their own local problems — inadvertently harming the other, until partnership turns into hostility.
- Growth and Underinvestment Instead of investing near the capacity limit, a system lets performance standards erode — recasting self-inflicted decline as a supposedly exogenous market force.
- Drifting Goals The “boiled frog”: the gap between desired and actual is closed by lowering the goal — not by raising performance.
- Attractiveness Principle Growing systems hit several limits at once and cannot resource-fix them all — some aspects improve while others erode.
- Tyranny of Small Steps A system is hollowed out and ultimately destroyed by a series of individually insignificant decisions.
- Rule Beating Actors obey the letter of a rule meticulously while completely subverting its intent.
- Seeking the Wrong Goal Systems are highly reliable at reaching the goal you set them — the catastrophe lies in setting the wrong one.
Game theory
- Prisoner's Dilemma Why two rational actors end up harming each other even though cooperating would leave both better off.
- Stag Hunt Why shared prosperity fails on a lack of trust — when the safe small payoff looks more attractive than the big one that requires full cooperation.
- Game of Chicken Whoever swerves first loses — whoever never swerves risks catastrophe for both.
- Volunteer's Dilemma Everyone benefits if just one person steps up — but nobody wants to be the one who pays the cost.
- Ultimatum & Dictator Game People reject unfair offers even when it costs them — fairness beats cold rationality.
- Cournot Competition Two suppliers choose their production quantities — and the sum of their decisions sets the market price through demand.
- Bertrand Competition Just two suppliers competing on price drive the price down to marginal cost — profit disappears.
- Chain Store Paradox Formal rationality says accommodate — yet fighting the first few challengers deters all the later ones.
- Traveler's Dilemma Why sharp “rational” calculation drives everyone to the worst possible outcome — while naive generosity tends to win in practice.
- Gift-Exchange Game Why employers voluntarily pay more than they must — and workers reciprocate the “wage as a gift” with higher effort.
- Beer-Quiche Signaling Why the weak mimic the strong — turning an observable action into a tool of deception.
- p-Beauty Contest You win not by being right, but by guessing what everyone else thinks is right — several levels deep.
- Braess's Paradox A new, seemingly faster road can slow down all the traffic — because selfish optimization drives the system into a worse equilibrium.
- Princess and Monster Game Search and hide in the dark: any predictable search can be evaded forever — only randomness catches the target.
Meta-frameworks
Synthesis
- From the Prisoner's Dilemma to the Tragedy of the Commons The Tragedy of the Commons is the macro-structural form of an N-player Prisoner’s Dilemma — game theory supplies the motive, system dynamics the collapse.
- From the Game of Chicken to Escalation Each step of an escalation spiral is a mini Game of Chicken — and system dynamics turns the binary crash into a cliff edge that draws continuously closer.
- Stag Hunt and Path Dependence An early lead makes coordinating on the better option too risky — so “Success to the Successful” cements the inferior standard.
31 concepts